2026 Oscar Predictions
Here are my official predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards!
Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Spoiler: The Secret Agent
With the new category, this could be up in the air. But I think/worry many voters will treat this like the cast ensemble at the SAGs. Why I am picking Sinners.
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Spoiler: Sinners
Typically, in this category, you want to go with the Oscar nominee or the most likely Oscar nominee. That is, if there is no Avatar. Avatar should win this.
Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat
Will Win: F1
Spoiler: Sirat
Maybe it’s wishful thinking to put Sirat here as a spoiler, but it should be winning.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Will Win: Frankenstein
Spoiler: Kokuho
It’s Frankenstein’s to lose.
Music (Original Song)
“Dear Me” – Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” – Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Viva Verdi
“Train Dreams” – Train Dreams
Will Win: “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters
Spoiler: “I Lied to You” – Sinners
Finding a spoiler here seems pointless.
Music (Original Score)
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet – Max Richter
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
Sinners – Ludwig Goransson
Will Win: Sinners – Ludwig Goransson
Spoiler: Hamnet – Max Richter
Another one that feels pointless having a spoiler. Ludwig is about to be a three-time winner. Crazy!
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Will Win: Frankenstein
Spoiler: Hamnet
Typically goes to a period piece, but Frankenstein is winning everywhere. A Sci-Fi period piece.
Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Will Win: Frankenstein
Spoiler: Marty Supreme
Another win for Frankenstein, but wouldn’t it be nice if the great Jack Fisk actually got his first win?
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Sinners
I was thinking this was Sinners to lose. However, Michael Bauman surprisingly won at the BAFTAs. Then, One Battle After Another also won the ASC. So, I’ve switched One Battle After Another to the frontrunner.
Film Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Sinners
One Battle has been winning everywhere, and I think it will win again at the Oscars.
Live Action Short Film
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Spoiler: Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Two People Exchanging Salvia is one of the better live-action shorts I have seen in this category in some time.
Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renuad
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Spoiler: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renuad
A moving and unfortunately evergreen doc short that is widely available for viewing.
Animated Short Film
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Will Win: Butterfly
Spoiler: Forevergreen
Butterfly is gorgeous, but Forevergreen feels like the kind of movie the Academy would go for.
Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Spoiler: The Alabama Solution
The two most widely seen docs. I think The Perfect Neighbor will take it.
Animated Feature Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Spoiler: Zootopia 2
Another category that doesn’t need a spoiler.
International Feature Film
The Secret Agent
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Sirat
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Spoiler: The Secret Agent
I think the strength of Sentimental Value will help it prevail here. However, the Brazilian contingent of the Academy is strong. So, it won’t be surprising if The Secret Agent wins here.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; Script Collaborators – Nader Saivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Will Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Spoiler: Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Neither screenplay category really has a spoiler. Set your watch by them.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia – Will Tracy
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet – Chloe Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley & Greg Kewdar
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Spoiler: Hamnet – Chloe Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
PTA’s first win of the night.
Directing
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
This should be PTA’s second win of the night. He won the DGA and the BAFTA.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Idsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons
Spoiler: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
This is one of the most uncertain categories, or perhaps the most uncertain. Amy won at SAG, which isn't a strong indicator, but her charming speech during Oscar voting will remind people that she hasn't won yet in her career, and her performance in Weapons is outstanding.
Teyana could win if there's strong support for One Battle After Another, but momentum is shifting in Amy’s favor.
Wunmi did win at BAFTA. Now that was home turf for her, which is why I am hesitant to put her on top. Many times, BAFTA goes British or European. However, if there is a Sinners surge, I won’t be shocked to see her win.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Will Win: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
The combo of Penn winning BAFTA and SAG is hard to ignore. He seems to only be gaining traction. Stellan could upset here, because of the Academy’s European contingent. But I think Penn is the safe bet. If there is a Sinners surge, Lindo could win here. If Lindo wins here, it could be a big night for Sinners.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia
Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Spoiler: Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jessie hasn’t lost any major precursors yet.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Spoiler: Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
I think the Academy is actually going with Timothee. It feels weird to say a 30-year-old is overdue. But I think he’s put in the work and earned the Academy’s respect, and this film is as much his as Josh Safdie’s.
However, something in the back of my head is saying this could be a 2002 movie, the 2003 Oscar year, when Brody surprisingly won out of nowhere. The Brazilian contingent and love/respect for Wagner Moura, so he may pull a surprise on Oscar night.
It may be foolish not to say it is Michael B. Jordan. The support for this film at SAG was apparent. I won’t be surprised if Michael does win.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Sinners
One Battle After Another winning at the P.G.A. (Producers’ Guild of America) is a huge win for the film. I know Sinners won for Ensemble at SAG. But that felt inevitable; it was the most ensemble of the movies nominated there.
Doesn’t mean it can’t win here, but if the awards shake out as I expect. One Battlewinning Editing, Adapted Screenplay, Director, and not winning Best Picture would be one of the weirder things I’ve seen the Academy do.
